OH-15 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Carey 71% chance
- Don Leonard (D)+3% past 7 days27%
- Mike Carey (R)-3% past 7 days71%
Chance over time
- Leonard27%
- Carey71%
Chance over time, past month: Leonard from 25% to 27%; Carey from 76% to 71%.
| Date | Leonard | Carey |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 24% | 76% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 23% | 78% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 24% | 75% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 24% | 74% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 27% | 71% |
Projected margin
Most likely Carey by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Carey +13 to Leonard +2.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Carey by 18+ | 3% |
| Carey by 15–18 | 4% |
| Carey by 12–15 | 4% |
| Carey by 9–12 | 14% |
| Carey by 6–9 | 17% |
| Carey by 3–6 | 20% |
| Carey by 0–3 | 17% |
| Leonard by 0–3 | 11% |
| Leonard by 3–6 | 5% |
| Leonard by 6+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Leonard wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Carey wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-15 member was elected on different lines.