AZ-01 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Shah 82% chance
- Amish Shah (D)+5% past 7 days82%
- Jay Feely (R)-4% past 7 days19%
Chance over time
- Shah82%
- Feely19%
Chance over time, past month: Shah from 71% to 82%; Feely from 31% to 19%.
| Date | Shah | Feely |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 75% | 26% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 77% | 23% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 80% | 20% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 77% | 22% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 82% | 19% |
Projected margin
Most likely Shah by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Feely +3.9 to Shah +15.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Feely by 6+ | 6% |
| Feely by 3–6 | 6% |
| Feely by 0–3 | 7% |
| Shah by 0–3 | 11% |
| Shah by 3–6 | 24% |
| Shah by 6–9 | 17% |
| Shah by 9–12 | 13% |
| Shah by 12–15 | 7% |
| Shah by 15–18 | 6% |
| Shah by 18+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Shah wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Feely wins, in 82 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. David Schweikert (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%