AZ-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Lamb 90% chance
- Elizabeth Lee (D)-1% past 7 days11%
- Mark Lamb (R)0% past 7 days90%
Chance over time
- Lee11%
- Lamb90%
Chance over time, past month: Lee from 9% to 11%; Lamb from 92% to 90%.
| Date | Lee | Lamb |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 12% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 11% | 90% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lamb by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Lamb +19.5 to Lee +0.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lamb by 25+ | 4% |
| Lamb by 20–25 | 5% |
| Lamb by 15–20 | 15% |
| Lamb by 10–15 | 28% |
| Lamb by 5–10 | 28% |
| Lamb by 0–5 | 10% |
| Lee by 0–5 | 6% |
| Lee by 5+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Andy Biggs (R)
More in Arizona
Ballot measures
- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 55%
- Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?Yes 63%
- Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?Yes 68%
- Arizona passes traffic camera ballot measure?Yes 88%