AL-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Aderholt 98% chance
- Amanda Pusczek (D)-1% past 7 days<1%
- Robert Aderholt (R)0% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Pusczek<1%
- Aderholt98%
Chance over time, past month: Pusczek from 1% to <1%; Aderholt from 98% to 98%.
| Date | Pusczek | Aderholt |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | <1% | 99% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | <1% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Aderholt by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Aderholt +68.7 to Aderholt +50.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Aderholt by 75+ | 1% |
| Aderholt by 70–75 | 5% |
| Aderholt by 65–70 | 17% |
| Aderholt by 60–65 | 32% |
| Aderholt by 55–60 | 29% |
| Aderholt by 50–55 | 8% |
| Aderholt by 45–50 | 3% |
| Aderholt by 35–45 | 5% |
| Aderholt by 0–35 | 1% |
| Pusczek wins | 1% |