AL-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Rogers 98% chance
- Lee McInnis (D)0% past 7 days<1%
- Mike Rogers (R)0% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- McInnis<1%
- Rogers98%
Chance over time, past month: McInnis from <1% to <1%; Rogers from 96% to 98%.
| Date | McInnis | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | <1% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | <1% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | <1% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rogers by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Rogers +45.8 to Rogers +27.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rogers by 55+ | 3% |
| Rogers by 50–55 | 3% |
| Rogers by 45–50 | 5% |
| Rogers by 40–45 | 33% |
| Rogers by 35–40 | 34% |
| Rogers by 30–35 | 11% |
| Rogers by 25–30 | 4% |
| Rogers by 15–25 | 6% |
| Rogers by 0–15 | 1% |
| McInnis wins | <1% |