AL-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Carl 96% chance
- Clyde Jones Jr. (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Jerry Carl (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Jones3%
- Carl96%
Chance over time, past month: Jones from 4% to 3%; Carl from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Jones | Carl |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Carl by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Carl +40 to Carl +20.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Carl by 50+ | 1% |
| Carl by 45–50 | 4% |
| Carl by 40–45 | 5% |
| Carl by 35–40 | 9% |
| Carl by 30–35 | 22% |
| Carl by 25–30 | 28% |
| Carl by 20–25 | 22% |
| Carl by 10–20 | 4% |
| Carl by 0–10 | 4% |
| Jones wins | 2% |