VA-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Scott 96% chance
- Bobby Scott (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Edwin Rivera (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Scott96%
- Rivera3%
Chance over time, past month: Scott from 97% to 96%; Rivera from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Scott | Rivera |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Scott by 45–50 · 8 in 10: Scott +37.4 to Scott +55
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rivera wins | <1% |
| Scott by 0–15 | <1% |
| Scott by 15–25 | <1% |
| Scott by 25–30 | <1% |
| Scott by 30–35 | 2% |
| Scott by 35–40 | 16% |
| Scott by 40–45 | 22% |
| Scott by 45–50 | 26% |
| Scott by 50–55 | 20% |
| Scott by 55+ | 14% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D)
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Ballot measures
- Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 91%