VA-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Vindman 97% chance
- Eugene Vindman (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Doug Ollivant (R)-2% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Vindman97%
- Ollivant2%
Chance over time, past month: Vindman from 94% to 97%; Ollivant from 7% to 2%.
| Date | Vindman | Ollivant |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 94% | 7% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Vindman by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Vindman +10.8 to Vindman +25
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ollivant by 5+ | 1% |
| Ollivant by 0–5 | 1% |
| Vindman by 0–5 | 1% |
| Vindman by 5–10 | 1% |
| Vindman by 10–15 | 37% |
| Vindman by 15–20 | 19% |
| Vindman by 20–25 | 22% |
| Vindman by 25+ | 18% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Eugene Simon Vindman (D)
More in Virginia
Ballot measures
- Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 91%