CT-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Hayes 95% chance
- Jahana Hayes (D)+1% past 7 days95%
- Chris Shea (R)0% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Hayes96%
- Shea4%
Chance over time, past month: Hayes from 95% to 96%; Shea from 5% to 4%.
| Date | Hayes | Shea |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hayes by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Hayes +7.8 to Hayes +26.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Shea wins | 4% |
| Hayes by 0–5 | 4% |
| Hayes by 5–10 | 5% |
| Hayes by 10–15 | 16% |
| Hayes by 15–20 | 28% |
| Hayes by 20–25 | 31% |
| Hayes by 25–30 | 11% |
| Hayes by 30+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)