CT-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Himes 97% chance
- Jim Himes (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Michael Goldstein (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Himes97%
- Goldstein2%
Chance over time, past month: Himes from 98% to 97%; Goldstein from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Himes | Goldstein |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Himes by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Himes +7.5 to Himes +44.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Goldstein wins | 5% |
| Himes by 0–10 | 7% |
| Himes by 10–20 | 3% |
| Himes by 20–25 | 7% |
| Himes by 25–30 | 18% |
| Himes by 30–35 | 21% |
| Himes by 35–40 | 24% |
| Himes by 40–45 | 7% |
| Himes by 45–50 | 7% |
| Himes by 50+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. James A. Himes (D)