PA-02 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Boyle 96% chance
- Brendan Boyle (D)+1% past 7 days96%
- Jessica Arriaga (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Boyle96%
- Arriaga2%
Chance over time, past month: Boyle from 95% to 96%; Arriaga from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Boyle | Arriaga |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Boyle by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Boyle +37.5 to Boyle +58.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Arriaga wins | 4% |
| Boyle by 0–20 | 3% |
| Boyle by 20–30 | 1% |
| Boyle by 30–35 | 1% |
| Boyle by 35–40 | 3% |
| Boyle by 40–45 | 24% |
| Boyle by 45–50 | 23% |
| Boyle by 50–55 | 20% |
| Boyle by 55–60 | 18% |
| Boyle by 60+ | 5% |