PA-14 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Reschenthaler 97% chance
- Alan Bradstock (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Guy Reschenthaler (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Bradstock3%
- Reschenthaler97%
Chance over time, past month: Bradstock from 5% to 3%; Reschenthaler from 95% to 97%.
| Date | Bradstock | Reschenthaler |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 2% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Reschenthaler by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Reschenthaler +45 to Reschenthaler +10.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Reschenthaler by 45+ | 14% |
| Reschenthaler by 40–45 | 8% |
| Reschenthaler by 35–40 | 2% |
| Reschenthaler by 30–35 | 6% |
| Reschenthaler by 25–30 | 18% |
| Reschenthaler by 20–25 | 17% |
| Reschenthaler by 15–20 | 21% |
| Reschenthaler by 5–15 | 10% |
| Reschenthaler by 0–5 | 3% |
| Bradstock wins | 2% |