MO-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Cleaver 96% chance
- Emanuel Cleaver (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Rick Brattin (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Cleaver96%
- Brattin3%
Chance over time, past month: Cleaver from 94% to 96%; Brattin from 6% to 3%.
| Date | Cleaver | Brattin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 92% | 8% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cleaver by 3+ · 8 in 10: Cleaver +3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Brattin by 21+ | <1% |
| Brattin by 18–21 | <1% |
| Brattin by 15–18 | <1% |
| Brattin by 12–15 | <1% |
| Brattin by 9–12 | <1% |
| Brattin by 6–9 | <1% |
| Brattin by 3–6 | <1% |
| Brattin by 0–3 | 3% |
| Cleaver by 0–3 | 2% |
| Cleaver by 3+ | 95% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%