MO-07 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Burlison 97% chance
- Missi Hesketh (D)-1% past 7 days3%
- Eric Burlison (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Hesketh3%
- Burlison97%
Chance over time, past month: Hesketh from 4% to 3%; Burlison from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Hesketh | Burlison |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Burlison by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Burlison +43.9 to Burlison +12.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Burlison by 50+ | 4% |
| Burlison by 45–50 | 3% |
| Burlison by 40–45 | 10% |
| Burlison by 35–40 | 23% |
| Burlison by 30–35 | 24% |
| Burlison by 25–30 | 17% |
| Burlison by 20–25 | 4% |
| Burlison by 10–20 | 5% |
| Burlison by 0–10 | 2% |
| Hesketh wins | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Eric Burlison (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%