MO-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Stigall 96% chance
- Josh Smead (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Chris Stigall (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Smead4%
- Stigall96%
Chance over time, past month: Smead from 6% to 4%; Stigall from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Smead | Stigall |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Stigall by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Stigall +35 to Stigall +12.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stigall by 35+ | 13% |
| Stigall by 30–35 | 25% |
| Stigall by 25–30 | 20% |
| Stigall by 20–25 | 13% |
| Stigall by 15–20 | 15% |
| Stigall by 10–15 | 6% |
| Stigall by 5–10 | 5% |
| Stigall by 0–5 | 1% |
| Smead wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Sam Graves (R)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%