MO-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Bell 98% chance
- Wesley Bell (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Paul Berry (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Bell98%
- Berry1%
Chance over time, past month: Bell from 98% to 98%; Berry from 2% to 1%.
| Date | Bell | Berry |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Bell by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Bell +42.1 to Bell +75
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Berry wins | <1% |
| Bell by 0–35 | 4% |
| Bell by 35–45 | 8% |
| Bell by 45–50 | 8% |
| Bell by 50–55 | 11% |
| Bell by 55–60 | 16% |
| Bell by 60–65 | 20% |
| Bell by 65–70 | 12% |
| Bell by 70–75 | 8% |
| Bell by 75+ | 11% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Wesley Bell (D)
More in Missouri
Ballot measures
- Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Yes 57%
- Missouri passes ballot measure to redistrict?No 75%