OR-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot
Hoyle 95% chance
- Val Hoyle (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Monique DeSpain (R)-1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Hoyle95%
- DeSpain4%
Chance over time, past month: Hoyle from 94% to 95%; DeSpain from 6% to 4%.
| Date | Hoyle | DeSpain |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hoyle by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Hoyle +8.9 to Hoyle +30.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| DeSpain wins | 2% |
| Hoyle by 0–5 | 2% |
| Hoyle by 5–10 | 7% |
| Hoyle by 10–15 | 7% |
| Hoyle by 15–20 | 21% |
| Hoyle by 20–25 | 32% |
| Hoyle by 25–30 | 17% |
| Hoyle by 30–35 | 8% |
| Hoyle by 35+ | 3% |