OR-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot
Bynum 96% chance
- Janelle Bynum (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Patti Adair (R)-1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Bynum96%
- Adair2%
Chance over time, past month: Bynum from 93% to 96%; Adair from 6% to 2%.
| Date | Bynum | Adair |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Bynum by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Bynum +10.3 to Bynum +30
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Adair wins | <1% |
| Bynum by 0–5 | 4% |
| Bynum by 5–10 | 5% |
| Bynum by 10–15 | 19% |
| Bynum by 15–20 | 17% |
| Bynum by 20–25 | 25% |
| Bynum by 25–30 | 20% |
| Bynum by 30+ | 10% |