FL-11 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Strada 83% chance
- James Pericola (D)+3% past 7 days16%
- Joe Strada (R)-5% past 7 days83%
Chance over time
- Pericola16%
- Strada83%
Chance over time, past month: Pericola from 14% to 16%; Strada from 84% to 83%.
| Date | Pericola | Strada |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 13% | 88% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 12% | 88% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 13% | 88% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 13% | 88% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 16% | 83% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Pericola wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Strada wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-11 member was elected on different lines.