FL-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 7:00 PM ET in most of Florida, 8:00 PM ET in the western Panhandle
Patronis 96% chance
- Gay Valimont (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Jimmy Patronis (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Valimont3%
- Patronis96%
Chance over time, past month: Valimont from 3% to 3%; Patronis from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Valimont | Patronis |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Patronis by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Patronis +39.2 to Patronis +18.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Patronis by 45+ | 4% |
| Patronis by 40–45 | 2% |
| Patronis by 35–40 | 21% |
| Patronis by 30–35 | 9% |
| Patronis by 25–30 | 21% |
| Patronis by 20–25 | 31% |
| Patronis by 15–20 | 5% |
| Patronis by 5–15 | 2% |
| Patronis by 0–5 | 4% |
| Valimont wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-01 member was elected on different lines.