FL-28 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Giménez 95% chance
- Phil Ehr (D)+1% past 7 days6%
- Carlos Giménez (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Ehr6%
- Giménez95%
Chance over time, past month: Ehr from 6% to 6%; Giménez from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Ehr | Giménez |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Giménez by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Giménez +26.1 to Giménez +5.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Giménez by 30+ | 3% |
| Giménez by 25–30 | 9% |
| Giménez by 20–25 | 14% |
| Giménez by 15–20 | 28% |
| Giménez by 10–15 | 18% |
| Giménez by 5–10 | 22% |
| Giménez by 0–5 | 3% |
| Ehr wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-28 member was elected on different lines.