FL-15 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Lee 95% chance
- Robert People (D)-3% past 7 days4%
- Laurel Lee (R)+2% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- People4%
- Lee95%
Chance over time, past month: People from 7% to 4%; Lee from 93% to 95%.
| Date | People | Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lee by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Lee +21.5 to Lee +6.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lee by 30+ | 1% |
| Lee by 25–30 | 1% |
| Lee by 20–25 | 12% |
| Lee by 15–20 | 26% |
| Lee by 10–15 | 31% |
| Lee by 5–10 | 26% |
| Lee by 0–5 | 3% |
| People wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-15 member was elected on different lines.