FL-14 House forecast
Lean Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Castor 70% chance
- Kathy Castor (D)+2% past 7 days70%
- Mike Beltran (R)-1% past 7 days31%
Chance over time
- Castor70%
- Beltran31%
Chance over time, past month: Castor from 64% to 70%; Beltran from 36% to 31%.
| Date | Castor | Beltran |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 64% | 36% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 64% | 36% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 66% | 35% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 68% | 32% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 70% | 31% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Castor wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Beltran wins, in 84 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-14 member was elected on different lines.