FL-19 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Schwartzel 95% chance
- Victor Arias (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Jim Schwartzel (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Arias5%
- Schwartzel95%
Chance over time, past month: Arias from 6% to 5%; Schwartzel from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Arias | Schwartzel |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Schwartzel by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Schwartzel +28.5 to Schwartzel +10.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Schwartzel by 35+ | 5% |
| Schwartzel by 30–35 | 4% |
| Schwartzel by 25–30 | 5% |
| Schwartzel by 20–25 | 35% |
| Schwartzel by 15–20 | 23% |
| Schwartzel by 10–15 | 23% |
| Schwartzel by 5–10 | 1% |
| Schwartzel by 0–5 | <1% |
| Arias wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-19 member was elected on different lines.