WY Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Hageman 99% chance
- James W. Byrd (D)0% past 7 days1%
- Harriet Hageman (R)0% past 7 days99%
Chance over time
- Byrd1%
- Hageman99%
Chance over time, past month: Byrd from 3% to 1%; Hageman from 97% to 99%.
| Date | Byrd | Hageman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 98% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hageman by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Hageman +50 to Hageman +17.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hageman by 50+ | 11% |
| Hageman by 45–50 | 12% |
| Hageman by 40–45 | 18% |
| Hageman by 35–40 | 22% |
| Hageman by 30–35 | 13% |
| Hageman by 25–30 | 4% |
| Hageman by 20–25 | 3% |
| Hageman by 15–20 | 14% |
| Hageman by 10–15 | 3% |
| Hageman by 0–10 | 1% |
| Byrd wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in fewer than 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Byrd wins, Democrats win the Senate in 96 of 100. Where Hageman wins, in 64 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.