WV Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close
Capito 98% chance
- Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)0% past 7 days1%
- Shelley Moore Capito (R)0% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Anderson1%
- Capito98%
Chance over time, past month: Anderson from 2% to 1%; Capito from 97% to 98%.
| Date | Anderson | Capito |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 99% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Capito by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Capito +42.7 to Capito +17.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Capito by 50+ | 3% |
| Capito by 45–50 | 3% |
| Capito by 40–45 | 8% |
| Capito by 35–40 | 23% |
| Capito by 30–35 | 23% |
| Capito by 25–30 | 18% |
| Capito by 20–25 | 8% |
| Capito by 15–20 | 6% |
| Capito by 10–15 | 4% |
| Capito by 0–10 | 1% |
| Anderson wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in fewer than 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Anderson wins, Democrats win the Senate in 96 of 100. Where Capito wins, in 64 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
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Ballot measures
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