IL-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Garcia 98% chance
- Patty Garcia (D)+2% past 7 days98%
- Lupe Castillo (R)-2% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Garcia98%
- Castillo2%
Chance over time, past month: Garcia from 96% to 98%; Castillo from 4% to 2%.
| Date | Garcia | Castillo |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garcia by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Garcia +30 to Garcia +50.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Castillo wins | <1% |
| Garcia by 0–15 | <1% |
| Garcia by 15–25 | 4% |
| Garcia by 25–30 | 5% |
| Garcia by 30–35 | 22% |
| Garcia by 35–40 | 29% |
| Garcia by 40–45 | 21% |
| Garcia by 45–50 | 8% |
| Garcia by 50–55 | 4% |
| Garcia by 55+ | 6% |