HI Governor forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Green 99% chance
- Josh Green (D)0% past 7 days99%
- Gary Cordery (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Green99%
- Cordery1%
Chance over time, past month: Green from 97% to 99%; Cordery from 3% to 1%.
| Date | Green | Cordery |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Green by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Green +8.1 to Green +45
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cordery wins | 4% |
| Green by 0–10 | 7% |
| Green by 10–15 | 6% |
| Green by 15–20 | 8% |
| Green by 20–25 | 5% |
| Green by 25–30 | 12% |
| Green by 30–35 | 15% |
| Green by 35–40 | 17% |
| Green by 40–45 | 15% |
| Green by 45+ | 12% |