NH Governor forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Most towns at 7:00 PM ET; some stay open until 8:00 PM ET
Ayotte 94% chance
- Cinde Warmington (D)-1% past 7 days5%
- Kelly Ayotte (R)+1% past 7 days94%
Chance over time
- Warmington5%
- Ayotte94%
Chance over time, past month: Warmington from 9% to 5%; Ayotte from 91% to 94%.
| Date | Warmington | Ayotte |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 93% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ayotte by 12–15 · 8 in 10: Ayotte +17.9 to Ayotte +1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ayotte by 18+ | 10% |
| Ayotte by 15–18 | 10% |
| Ayotte by 12–15 | 24% |
| Ayotte by 9–12 | 17% |
| Ayotte by 6–9 | 16% |
| Ayotte by 3–6 | 10% |
| Ayotte by 0–3 | 4% |
| Warmington by 0–3 | 3% |
| Warmington by 3–6 | 2% |
| Warmington by 6+ | 3% |