SD Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of South Dakota, 9:00 PM ET in the Mountain-time west
Rhoden 97% chance
- Dan Ahlers (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Larry Rhoden (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Ahlers2%
- Rhoden98%
Key moments
· Around this time
Poll found no GOP hopeful near 35% mark
An Emerson College poll for KELOLAND, taken May 18-19, had Toby Doeden at 26%, Dusty Johnson at 23%, Gov. Larry Rhoden at 19% and Jon Hansen at 16% in the Republican primary. No one neared the 35% needed to avoid a runoff, and 26% approved of Rhoden's job performance while 39% disapproved. The poll did not test the November matchup.
Emerson College Polling: South Dakota 2026 Poll: Toby Doeden, Dusty Johnson Lead Primary for Governor (opens in a new tab) · KELOLAND News: Doeden surpasses Johnson in latest KELOLAND/Emerson poll (opens in a new tab)
· No single event explains this move
No clear event found
No candidate change, debate, major poll or ruling in the South Dakota governor race was found dated May 25-31, 2026, before the June 2 primary.
Chance over time, past month: Ahlers from 3% to 2%; Rhoden from 95% to 98%.
| Date | Ahlers | Rhoden |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rhoden by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Rhoden +29.5 to Rhoden +11.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rhoden by 45+ | 1% |
| Rhoden by 40–45 | 1% |
| Rhoden by 35–40 | 1% |
| Rhoden by 30–35 | 6% |
| Rhoden by 25–30 | 21% |
| Rhoden by 20–25 | 24% |
| Rhoden by 15–20 | 32% |
| Rhoden by 10–15 | 9% |
| Rhoden by 0–10 | 3% |
| Ahlers wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
More in South Dakota
Ballot measures
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