SD-AL House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of South Dakota, 9:00 PM ET in the Mountain-time west
Jackley 95% chance
- Nikki Gronli (D)+1% past 7 days5%
- Marty Jackley (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Gronli5%
- Jackley95%
Chance over time, past month: Gronli from 4% to 5%; Jackley from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Gronli | Jackley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Jackley by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Jackley +34.9 to Jackley +9.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jackley by 40+ | 9% |
| Jackley by 35–40 | 1% |
| Jackley by 30–35 | 8% |
| Jackley by 25–30 | 14% |
| Jackley by 20–25 | 35% |
| Jackley by 15–20 | 18% |
| Jackley by 10–15 | 5% |
| Jackley by 0–10 | 7% |
| Gronli wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Dusty Johnson (R)
More in South Dakota
Ballot measures
- South Dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 91%