UT-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Kennedy 95% chance
- Jonny Larsen (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Mike Kennedy (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Larsen4%
- Kennedy95%
Chance over time, past month: Larsen from 5% to 4%; Kennedy from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Larsen | Kennedy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 93% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Kennedy by 5–15 · 8 in 10: Kennedy +38.3 to Kennedy +7.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kennedy by 45+ | 1% |
| Kennedy by 40–45 | 8% |
| Kennedy by 35–40 | 3% |
| Kennedy by 30–35 | 3% |
| Kennedy by 25–30 | 13% |
| Kennedy by 20–25 | 22% |
| Kennedy by 15–20 | 22% |
| Kennedy by 5–15 | 23% |
| Kennedy by 0–5 | 5% |
| Larsen wins | <1% |