SC Governor forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close
Wilson 93% chance
- Jermaine Johnson (D)+2% past 7 days7%
- Alan Wilson (R)-2% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Johnson7%
- Wilson93%
Chance over time, past month: Johnson from 6% to 7%; Wilson from 94% to 93%.
| Date | Johnson | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Wilson by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Wilson +23.9 to Wilson +4.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wilson by 25+ | 6% |
| Wilson by 20–25 | 17% |
| Wilson by 15–20 | 14% |
| Wilson by 10–15 | 28% |
| Wilson by 5–10 | 22% |
| Wilson by 0–5 | 8% |
| Johnson by 0–5 | 2% |
| Johnson by 5+ | 1% |