SC-01 House forecast
Lean Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Honeycutt 67% chance
- Nancy Lacore (D)+5% past 7 days34%
- Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R)-3% past 7 days67%
Chance over time
- Lacore34%
- Honeycutt67%
Chance over time, past month: Lacore from 30% to 34%; Honeycutt from 70% to 67%.
| Date | Lacore | Honeycutt |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 29% | 71% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 30% | 69% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 34% | 67% |
Projected margin
Most likely Honeycutt by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Honeycutt +14 to Lacore +5.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Honeycutt by 18+ | 4% |
| Honeycutt by 15–18 | 4% |
| Honeycutt by 12–15 | 8% |
| Honeycutt by 9–12 | 4% |
| Honeycutt by 6–9 | 16% |
| Honeycutt by 3–6 | 16% |
| Honeycutt by 0–3 | 15% |
| Lacore by 0–3 | 13% |
| Lacore by 3–6 | 14% |
| Lacore by 6+ | 7% |