ND-AL House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of North Dakota, 9:00 PM ET in the Mountain-time southwest
Fedorchak 97% chance
- Trygve Hammer (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Julie Fedorchak (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Hammer3%
- Fedorchak97%
Chance over time, past month: Hammer from 3% to 3%; Fedorchak from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Hammer | Fedorchak |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fedorchak by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Fedorchak +38.6 to Fedorchak +18.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fedorchak by 45+ | 1% |
| Fedorchak by 40–45 | 5% |
| Fedorchak by 35–40 | 15% |
| Fedorchak by 30–35 | 23% |
| Fedorchak by 25–30 | 32% |
| Fedorchak by 20–25 | 12% |
| Fedorchak by 15–20 | 4% |
| Fedorchak by 5–15 | 2% |
| Fedorchak by 0–5 | 4% |
| Hammer wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R)