OK-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time
Cole 97% chance
- Mitchell Jacob (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Tom Cole (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Jacob3%
- Cole97%
Chance over time, past month: Jacob from 6% to 3%; Cole from 94% to 97%.
| Date | Jacob | Cole |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cole by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Cole +39.5 to Cole +3.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cole by 45+ | 4% |
| Cole by 40–45 | 6% |
| Cole by 35–40 | 6% |
| Cole by 30–35 | 14% |
| Cole by 25–30 | 23% |
| Cole by 20–25 | 22% |
| Cole by 15–20 | 11% |
| Cole by 5–15 | 2% |
| Cole by 0–5 | 5% |
| Jacob wins | 6% |